NBA MVP Analysis

To help introduce the basics of advanced statistics in basketball, let's take a look at a few players that are familiar to even the most casual NBA fans. Whenever 2010-2011 MVP discussions arise, three names are consistently mentioned: Derrick Rose, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard. Rose is, in all likelihood, going to win the MVP Award. Whether you believe he deserves to win it is largely a product of your definition of what the MVP is supposed to be. We're not interested in that in this particular post. Rather, we're interested in analyzing which one of these players is the best. After a solid analysis, the answer is still not clear. But, it might help up clear some confusions.

First, it is necessary to understand a few advanced statistics.

• True shooting percentage measures offensive efficiency. It is basically a player's shooting percentage while accounting for the fact that a 3 pointer is worth fifty percent more than a 2 pointer. It also adjusts for the value of a free throw.
• Usage measures the percentage of a team's possessions that a player uses while he is on the floor. With five players on the court at a time, 20% usage is average. Players who create the most offense for their teams have usages upwards of 30%.
• Pace estimates the number of possessions a team uses per 48 minutes.

Note: all statistics found in this post can be easily found on basketball-reference.com or hoopdata.com. Future posts and Daily Dictionary entries will explore these statistics further.

Derrick Rose has clearly taken a large leap offensively from his first two years by nearly any statistical measure. His true shooting percentage is 55% which is slightly above league average. Rose's increase in true shooting is largely a product of his increased focus on shooting 3 pointers. Remarkably, Rose's usage has also risen dramatically to the tune of 32.2%. Generally, when a player's usage increases, his true shooting decreases. Rose has seen significant increases in both respects. Rose is the only player in the league who has both a TS% at or above 55 and a usage at or above 32.

True shooting is basically a reflection of half of a player's points per possession, indicating that Rose is scoring about 1.1 points per possession (.55*2). The Bulls use about 90.4 possessions per game (team pace). Rose plays 78 percent of possible minutes, so he is on the floor for approximately 70.512 of the Bulls' possessions. 32.2 percent (usage) of 70.512 is 22.7, so Rose is using approximately 22.7 possessions at a 1.1 point per possession rate. That leads to Rose being responsible for 25.0 points per game through his scoring.

In calculating Rose's impact on his teammates through assists, we need to make an adjustment

because we are focusing on Rose's teammates. Rose's teammates are using 47.8 possessions per game when Rose is on the floor. This is just calculated through subtracting the possessions Rose uses from the possessions Rose is on the floor. The Bulls' team true shooting percentage is 54.1%. Rose's assist rate on his teammates possessions is 29.4%. Doing similar calculations as previously, Derrick Rose is responsible for approximately 15.2 points per game through his assists (47.8*.294*1.082). There are further adjustments to make that number more exact, but we will address those in a future post. Altogether, Derrick Rose is responsible for approximately 40.2 points per game through his scoring and passing.

To summarize the calculations above:

Value of points scored = (possessions)*(usage)*(true shooting percentage)

Value of assists = (teammates' possessions)*(assist rate)*(team true shooting percentage)

LeBron James has a true shooting percentage of 59.4 (1.188 points per possession), a usage of 31.5, and an assist rate of 34.9. LeBron plays 80.3 percent of available minutes and the Heat use 90.9 possessions a game (pace) at a true shooting percentage of 57.3. So, LeBron is on the floor for 73 possessions per game. Doing the same calculations above, LeBron is responsible for 27.3 points per game (73*.315*1.188) through his scoring and 15.4 points per game (50*.269*1.146) through his assists for a total of 42.7 points per game.

Dwight Howard has a true shooting percentage of 61.6, a usage of 27.2, and an assist rate of 6.3. Howard plays 78.3 percent of available minutes and the Magic use 91.4 possessions per game at a true shooting percentage of 55.4. So, Howard is on the floor for 71.6 possessions per game. Doing the same calculations, Dwight is responsible for 23.9 points per game (71.6*.272*1.232) through his scoring and 3.6 points per game through his assists (52.1*.063*1.108) for a total of 27.5 points per game.

One of the main purposes of this exercise is to show the usefulness and applicability of advanced statistics. These statistics are not random numbers designed to trick people, they are more detailed numbers that can help better determine a player's value than traditional statistics. Want some proof? Let's look at the scoring numbers we just came up with.

We calculated Derrick Rose's scoring to be worth 25.0 points per game. That is his exact points per game average this year. LeBron James' calculated points per game is 27.3 and actual points per game is 27.6. Dwight Howard's calculated points per game is 23.9 and actual points per game is 22.9. The slight differences in LeBron' and Dwight's can largely be attributed to rounding errors and teams playing at a different pace when these players are off the court.

To summarize, in terms of scoring and assisting on teammates' scoring, the MVP candidates rank as follows:

LeBron James- 42.7 points per game

Derrick Rose- 40.2 points per game

Dwight Howard- 27.5 points per game

Now, these numbers certainly do not calculate any of these players' true values. Dwight Howard, for example, is far more valuable than Rose or LeBron in terms of his defense and rebounding. Those numbers are much more hard to quantify, and beyond the scope of what we want to address at this point. But the true question is: is Dwight Howard's defensive and rebounding worth ~15 points per game more than LeBron's rebounding and defense? Is it worth ~13 points per game more than Rose's defense and rebounding? Is Derrick Rose worth slightly more than LeBron James in terms of defense and rebounding? The answers to these questions will lead you to who has been the most valuable player in the NBA this year.