Thursday, May 5, 2011

Daily Dictionary: wOBA

wOBA- weighted On-Base Average

wOBA = ((.72*NIBB)+(.75*HBP)+(.9*1B)+(.92*RBOE)+(1.24*2B)+(1.56*3B)+(1.95*HR))/AB

NIBB = Non-Intentional Bases on Balls
RBOE = Reached Base on Error

Now, this calculation may look daunting but it's really rather simple. wOBA is an improvement on OBP (and OPS accordingly) based on linear weights. The coefficients for the respective hits/at-bat results are simply a run value of the particular event. So when a player hits a single, it results in, on average, 0.9 runs. Obviously, a lot of the time a single isn't going to bring in any runs. But, when you have men on second and third, a single will often bring in two runs. These coefficients are derived from historical numbers, so they aren't just theoretical... they're what actually happens. A home run results in, on average, 1.95 runs. That just means that, on average, home runs are hit when one runner is on base. The first run is result of the hitter and the 0.95 is from the average runners on-base at the time of the home run.

wOBA is basically the best hitting statistic you will find. It is descriptive rather than predictive. This is an important distinction. BABIP, which we discussed previously, will give you good predictions on what may happen in the future. wOBA is simply a description of what has happened. It is important not to confuse the two when talking about different types of analysis.

Top 5 hitters in wOBA in 2010:

1. Josh Hamilton- .447
2. Joey Votto- .439
3. Miguel Cabrera- .429
4. Jose Bautista- .422
5. Albert Pujols- .420

As you can see, wOBA is an extremely accurate measure of who the top hitters were in 2010.

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